A possible super El Nino could stack a food shock on top of the energy shock.
Economists warn that a potentially very strong 2026-27 El Nino could damage harvests and prolong pressure on global food prices into 2028 while the Iran war already raises energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs.
Verified 5:32 AM PDT · 1 original sources
The evidence
What the reporting establishes
What happened
Economists warn that a potentially very strong 2026-27 El Nino could damage harvests and prolong pressure on global food prices into 2028 while the Iran war already raises energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs.
Pressure point
This is a scenario, not observed inflation. El Nino's eventual strength, regional crop effects, inventories, substitution, and policy responses remain uncertain, and bank estimates should not be read as forecasts with guaranteed precision.
What to watch
NOAA and WMO updates, sea-surface temperatures, crop conditions for rice, palm oil, sugar, and coffee, fertilizer availability, the FAO food-price index, and pass-through into consumer prices.
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Original sources
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