Anthropic's middle AI scenario grows the economy but leaves knowledge-worker pay flat
Anthropic's Economics team modeled three possible U.S. economies in 2030. In the modest scenario, output is 1.6 percent above the no-AI baseline. In the substantial scenario, output is 8.3 percent above baseline, and AI can do half of knowledge work, mostly on its own. Businesses still do not use AI for most tasks. Knowledge-worker wages stay flat, while other workers gain.
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In the extreme scenario, output is 32.4 percent above baseline. Annual growth approaches 15 percent as AI does nearly all knowledge work.
Anthropic built these scenarios. They are models, not observed data or company forecasts. The results depend on assumptions about AI capability, adoption, productivity, new tasks and how long displaced workers need to find new jobs. Anthropic gives none of the three paths a probability.
The company benefits when customers expect stronger models. Anthropic's policy arguments also carry more weight when governments expect disruption. Readers can use the model to trace its assumptions, but the model cannot tell them which future will happen.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics can track unemployment and job switching in occupations with high AI use. Its wage data should separate knowledge workers from people in physical and service jobs. The Bureau of Economic Analysis can test whether labor's share of income falls as output grows. Company data should also separate tasks that AI assists from work it finishes without a person.
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